‘Rise of China’ is an often discussed topic in the media, and the developed countries are seeking ways to recalibrate the rise. It has been projected that Chinese economy is growing fast and will overtake the US Gross National Product (GDP) in 5 years.The capability of a country to pay for defence is proportional to a country’s wealth and GDP. Already Peoples Republic of China (PRP) controls many African and Asian countries by lending them money and helping them to build their infrastructure such as construction of roads, railways , dams, ports and airports. Sometimes China helps to build on a bartering arrangement, with African countries, in exchange for minerals and hydrocarbons. China has signed bilateral trade agreement with 40 countries in Africa. Soon their wealth will help China to stretch their authority and control in many other countries like the British Empire did in seventeenth century.
Now the US is the wealthiest country, although the gap between the rich and poor is wider now.On comparing China with America it is important to note that American population is 25% that of China while the land area is nearly equal.Currently the US GDP is $21.43 trillion and that of PRC is $14.7 trillion.The growth rate of PRC is much faster than that of America, which means within five years PRC will overtake America to be the wealthiest country in the world.
When we talk of powerful nations, we refer to their military might and the capability to defeat another country either by invading a country or being invaded by another country. In most countries, defence budget is dependent on GDP. The countries usually maintain their percentage of defence spend in the subsequent years, to safeguard their interests. In the US it was 3.4% of GDP which is $730 billion and in china it was 1.9% or $250 billion last year. This means the US spending is far higher than PRC on defence budget. Other countries which give priority to defence are Saudi Arabia, Russia, and India. Saudi Arabia spend on defence is 8%, or $61billion,Russia 3.9% or $65 billion, India 2.4% or $71 billion. These statistics rule out any chance of their catching up with the US, because their actual spend is much lower. In the foreseeable future, it is impossible for PRC to increase their percentage spending to match with the US. Therefore their defence inventory cannot match that of America. However there are other criteria in determining the power of a country.
In this century of drone attacks, and targeted missile attacks, technology in defence is of paramount importance. PRC has 2.3 million military personnel, while the US has only 1.4 million military personnel. A lot of activities done by human beings can be done by state of the art technologies, in the present day world of artificial intelligence and robots. PRC is aware of the large size of its antiquated mid-twentieth century force, requiring huge supply and resources to maintain them in the remote border areas. In conventional war, like that of the world wars, number of military personnel were of paramount importance. PRC is still inclined to practise that sort of aggression and in June 2020, there was a primitive hand to hand skirmish in Galwan Valley, border between India and PRC. Nowadays, increased number of military personnel are required only for occupying a country after aggression. That would be of advantage to PRC than the US.
Although the US has more aircraft carriers than PRC, the total number of
naval fleet is higher for PRC. American ship building and repairing
areas have been neglected by successive governments since president
Reagan. A report from America shows that up to 10 warships can be
repaired in a short time if hostilities occur between America and PRC.
If there is a sudden damage to scores of warships in a major war, the
Chinese could win by steadily chipping away at US naval strength while
more easily making good its own losses with the benefit of efficient
workers and good ship building facilities. It has been reported that PRC
is capable of deploying ‘carrier killer’ missiles after warning the US
navy to stay out of the South China Sea. China can inflict a bloody nose
on the US if a Chinese ‘carrier killer’ sinks an aircraft carrier! But
the US claims that US air crafts are equipped with extensive active and
passive defences for defeating low flying cruise missiles and hostile
submarines.
When it comes to aircraft, US is strong with 12304 air crafts while
China has only 4182. Also, US air crafts are more technologically
advanced in surveillance and in precision bombardment. In China,
population density in upcoming cities is very high, and their industries
are concentrated there. Therefore they are more accessible and easy
targets for the US air force. America depends on their satellite system
for their military intelligence and quick reaction. But PRC claims that
they can take those satellites out in a ‘matter of minutes’. china is
believed to be having only 250 nuclear warheads while the US claims to
have an inventory of 5800 nuclear warheads. Their Trident missiles have
nuclear warheads.
Considering all facts as above, I do not think China
has any chance to become the most powerful super power in the world at
least for the next 30 years. Yes they are having soft power due to their
trading relationship with several countries in Africa, South America
and Asia, and likely to increase this when their GDP overtakes the US.
PRC can also make these countries their overseas bases for their
military activities. But the US has the track record of using a nuclear
bomb in 1945 and known for its well seasoned global strategies on
warfare. Although ex president Trump has many pitfalls, one thing he
alerted the world to was the unhindered growth of China. It is time for
the democratic countries in the world to ‘reset China’ by doing fewer
trade with PRC. The status of China being the most powerful country will
not be acceptable to democratic countries, as they can manoeuvre into
aggression, occupy and control people with a iron fist.
Dr.C.J.George
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